September 2024 Newsletter

Welcome to my newsletter, the summer is over, the kids are back in school, empty nesters are taking well deserved vacations and taking advantage of the decrease in tourism for the fall with less crowds and I am back to work as your real estate professional working to better the lives of my clients

Real Estate Update

Mortgage Market Summary

If you haven’t heard yet, Jerome Powell of the Federal Reserve Board (The Fed) and the Federal Open Market Committee chose to lower its key overnight borrowing rate by a half percentage point, or 50 basis points, amid signs that inflation was moderating, and the labor market was weakening. “The Committee has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent, and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance,” the Federal Reserve statement said.

That said, and thankfully they have been able to bring the overnight rates down, the mortgage market has been anticipating this change for a little while (baking in the lowering of rates) and over the summer the average interest rates on purchase money have gone down.

Market and Industry News

The mortgage market and buyer broker compensation has been dictating buyer activity in recent months, if you haven’t heard by now, there are lots of changes happening in the way Realtors get compensated. I am going to try and make it understandable and compact in reading.

The old way: In the past and seemingly forever past, sellers were required to offer buyer broker agencies a cooperating compensation for the listing to be published in the MLS. The MLS is and was nothing more than a vehicle to offer real estate to buyers and compensation to buyer agent brokers. An offer. The rules said that to be published an offer of compensation would be required. A lawsuit in Missouri by a group of homeowners brought suit against Realtor Associations and MLS organizations claiming they were paying too much in commissions and was unfair to them, costing them more money than need be. They won their suits, and most major real estate organizations settled with the plaintiffs, including Coldwell Banker. Commissions have always been negotiable with sellers and there has never been an industry mandated commission rate. The 6% commission was never set in stone and seller have always been able to negotiate when signing listings.

The new way: Because of the rules changes, sellers are now NOT required to offer compensation to cooperating buyer agent brokers for their listing to be published in the MLS. Buyer agents are now required to have a formal buyer agreement with buyers with a commission or rate explicitly stated before showing property and writing offers. The old way the buyer and agent had trust between them to make the deal, now there still is trust between the parties with less chances of hurt feelings if the buyer goes away. The buyer is now going to be responsible for compensating their agent. However, the seller still can offer compensation to the cooperating broker and if it differs from the agreement with the buyer the compensation can become a meld of the two agreements. I know it sounds a little complicated but I think this will actually have a good effect on the buying and selling process, we’ll see how the actual money amounts will change, if any.

Please let me know if I can explain the situation to you.

The Local Real Estate Market

As you can see with the running 3 year number of sold listings that the volume is down and trending down, there will be a better surge this fall, I believe, because the lower interest rates will free more people to not only buy houses but also sellers will be able to more easily move up to a larger home. Please make this happen 🙂

September 23, 2024

The Consumer Price Index rose 2.5% over the past year, August 2023 to August 2024, The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 2.5 percent, the smallest over-the-year increase since the 12 months ending March 2021.

https://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.ca_sanfrancisco_msa.htm

A recent sale of mine, 101 Lombard Street, #109W, a beautiful two bedroom, two bath condominium located in one of the finest buildings on the San Francisco Waterfront.

Finance

https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms

The mortgage market is starting to come alive with many different programs tailored not only to W-2 earners but also self-employed people with programs that take into account, cash-flow, assets vs only income, equity in other real estate, low money down programs that appeal to first-time home buyers, plus other programs that are made to fit the individual borrow’s personal situation. The key interest rate on 30 year fixed loans are trending down with the upsurge in the number of listings available in the “fall market”. The chart above illustrates the trend, Yay!!!

Football

I have to say that I still enjoy watching the NFL where the level of play is of course, the best, The Niners are off to a rocky start after their recent loss to the Rams, but they did have a few key players on the sideline which hurt their chances of victory. They should all be back off their injuries soon but the team must find a way to win without them. My hometown Giants have the same record as the Niners but I have to say I don’t have the same confidence in them as I do our San Francisco team.

Thank you

Thank you for your continued support and referrals, I always greatly appreciate your referrals and feel much gratitude in helping my clients sell or purchase real estate. Please let me know how I may be of assistance whether it’s real estate or if you need referrals to the Trades or professional services, I have an extensive resource list that I am very willing to share with you.

Gary F Saydah

Broker-Associate

Coldwell Banker Luxury Realty

415-505-1999 | gary.saydah@cbrealty.com | garysaydah.com
Cal DRE #01488727 | 1560 Van Ness Avenue 2nd Flr., San Francisco, CA 94109

August 2024 Newsletter
Welcome to the Summer, I know many of you are planning on vacations this summer to places you return to each year or to new adventures. My summer vacation will occur in late September to early October with a visit to Italy to go back to some of the cities I’ve been to before, Rome, Florence, and Verona to see friends and the change will be a bike trip in Puglia, the southeastern tip of the heel of Italy, meeting some friends there, and two in particular that I’ve known since my teenage years.
Real Estate Update

Mortgage Market Summary
Buyers are committing to properties with the current interest rates because the possibility of a reduction in the future to refinance will be there but the window for that happening is not yet clear.
Jerome Powell, the Fed Chair, is sticking to the current strategy until he sees inflation reduced towards 2% on a consistent basis.
“The Committee has stated that we do not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range for the federal funds rate until we have gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent,” Mr. Powell said.
He added that data earlier this year failed to provide such confidence, but that recent inflation readings “have shown some modest further progress, and more good data would strengthen our confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.”
PRIMARY MORTGAGE MARKET SURVEY®
Summary page with all rate types – U.S. averages

U.S. 30 yr U.S. 15 yr U.S. 5/1 ARM U.S. 30 yr FRM/
30 yr fees & 15 yr fees & 5/1 fees & 5/1 ARM 5/1 ARM
Week FRM points FRM points ARM points margin spread

FreddieMAC

PRIMARY MORTGAGE MARKET SURVEY^®
Summary page with all rate types – U.S. averages

	U.S.	30 yr	U.S.	15 yr	U.S.	5/1 ARM	U.S.	30 yr FRM/
	30 yr	fees &	15 yr	fees &	5/1	fees &	5/1 ARM	5/1 ARM
Week	FRM	points	FRM	points	ARM	points	margin	spread

5/30/2024 7. 03 6.36
6/6/2024 6.99 6.29
6/13/2024 6.95 6.17
6/20/2024 6.87 6.13
6/27/2024 6.86 6.16
7/3/2024 6.95 6.25
Although Freddie Mac attempts to provide reliable, useful information in this document Freddie Mac does not guarantee that the information is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. Estimates contained in this document are those of Freddie Mac currently and are subject to change without notice.

Our Current Situation Re: Marin County Sold Listings and Sales Price Average
Marin County is still a very hot seller’s market with the average price edging up to $2.4 MM, while the number of sold listings is lagging and well below where it was three years ago. Less inventory and a good economy means higher prices for homes.

We Are Very Local
Same as last newsletter. The employment picture remains good for San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA and the environs with solid jobs and according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics the unemployment rate still stands at about 4% which by any measure and excellent statistic. There have been tech layoffs, but the employment picture still looks reasonably good, employment numbers have gotten a little worse and the stock markets have made a temporary dive but we should be fine getting past the election.

San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA

The Next Few Months

I’m not sure why condos are not selling so well these days other than buyers are waiting for rates to go down and most are also confronted by high HOA fees which give the buyer the services of a building but no real tax benefits. But in life you usually get what you pay for and having high HOA dues reflects the service you receive. Now is a fantastic time to buy a condo, sellers are waiting for offers and the prices are better now than they have been in a long while.

What I Hope For

Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, avoided sending a clear signal about when the central bank would begin to cut interest rates even as he welcomed a recent cool-down in inflation.
“Today I’m not going to be sending any signals one way or the other on any particular meeting,” Mr. Powell said while speaking at the Economic Club of Washington on Monday. – NY Times, July 15, 2024
Inflation has receded and prices are stabilizing but the Fed wants to wait until September to see if the reduction in the inflation rate maintains or keeps going down. They are keeping an eagle eye on the employment rate to see if there is a spike in unemployment which could indicate a possible slow-down in the economy. All’s well though at the moment. Now might be a good time for people to move to a larger home and there are ways to buy first then sell second through some creative financing that is available to my clients. Call me if you have any interest in doing a move up. I work with first time homebuyers and can help lead you through all the changes in the way we are going to be doing business starting in August, 2024.

On A Personal Note

Thanks for reading my newsletter, I hope it is informative and useful as I try to bring information to my readers with their interests at heart. My daughter Camryn is just finishing her freshman year at The University of Oregon and will be spending the summer home working as a junior paralegal. She hopes to become a lawyer some day.

And as always, please don’t hesitate to contact me with any question have about real estate or anything else that’s on your mind.

All the best,

Gary F. Saydah
415-505-1999 | gary.saydah@cbrealty.com | www.garysaydah.com
Cal DRE #01488727 | 1560 Van Ness Avenue 2nd Flr., San Francisco, CA 94109

June 2024 Newsletter

Where has the spring gone! We are entering June, and the real estate market has acted just the way we predicted in the early spring. Condo sales are flat while single family homes prices are on the rise because of low inventory and the need for buyers who are seeking singularity in ownership.

Year to-date Market Summary

Mortgage rates remain high in comparison to where they once were a few years ago and homeowners who have a 2.5% fixed rate loan are holding on to them with a death grip. In the 1950’s and 1960’s mortgage loan rates hovered around 4.3%-5.1% and people could rely on those rates to remain constant through the years engendering confidence in the market. I was speaking to my father who was a real estate broker for 40 years in New Jersey and he once bought a building when the interest rate was over 18% because he knew it was a good deal and that rates would eventually come down.

Core inflation is remaining persistently higher than any of us would like, it’s a hangover from the COVID stimulus as well as good old fashion profit taking, got to get it while you can. They are slowly lowering though.

Our Current Situation Re: The Case-Shiller Housing Index for the Bay Area

What the Case-Shiller Index means. To determine whether or not you are likely to make money by selling your home, look at the Case-Shiller value for the quarter in which you purchased your home. Let’s say that value is 110. That means when you purchased your home it was worth 10% more than it was in 2000.

We Are Very Local

Same as last newsletter. The employment picture remains good for San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA and the environs with solid jobs and according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics the unemployment rate still stands at about 4% which by any measure and excellent statistic. There have been tech layoffs, but the employment picture still looks good!

San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA

The Next Few Months

I’m not sure why condos are not selling so well these days other than buyers are waiting for rates to go down and most are also confronted by high HOA fees which give the buyer the services of a building but no real tax benefits. Now is a fantastic time to buy a condo, sellers are begging for offers and the prices are better now than they have been in a long while.

What I Hope For

There was an interesting article in the NY Times by Peter Coy about mortgage portability to new properties, it would take a literal act of Congress for this to happen but it’s worth dreaming about, here is a link to the article.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/06/opinion/portable-mortgage-loans-housing.html?smid=url-share

On A Personal Note

And as always, please don’t hesitate to contact me with any question have about real estate or anything else that’s on your mind.

All the best,

Gary F. Saydah

415-505-1999 | gary.saydah@cbrealty.com | www.garysaydah.com

Cal DRE #01488727 | 1560 Van Ness Avenue 2^nd Flr., San Francisco, CA 94109

February 2024 Newsletter

The holidays were fun for me, Thanksgiving, which is one of my favorite holidays, was a total blast spent with family and friends and then Christmas was a much quieter day with just some family and a friend or two. Glad the Forty Niners went to the Super Bowl and was disappointed in their loss. Having played team sports, football and baseball growing up through high school, taught me how hard it is to win any kind of a championship. Football my senior year at Tenafly High School was a great season, we ended with 9 wins and 2 losses, but the second loss was in the state sectional championship, and we got blown out by a much better and deeper bench Sparta High School, I remember crying after the game because it was so disappointing. Baseball my senior year we did manage to win the league championship and that was a great feeling! In all my team sports experience that was the ONLY championship of any kind I was involved with. But the lesson I learned was that to be truly great and to win takes a lot of work and a lot of luck to be in the right place at the right time. That says a lot about life as well, we work hard and maybe some luck will break our way.

Year-End Market Summary

2023 was a challenging year for the U.S. housing market: mortgage rates hit a 2-decade high, housing inventory remained at historic lows, and sales prices continued to climb nationwide, putting homeownership out of reach for many consumers. Housing affordability remained a top concern for homebuyers, and for good reason: mortgage payments are up significantly for 2022, with a number of homeowners how spending more than 30% of their income on their monthly payment. As a result, sales of previously owned homes remained sluggish throughout the year, while the shortage of existing-home inventory helped sales of new residential homes steadily increase from last year.

Higher mortgage rates aren’t just affecting buyers. Many current homeowners purchased or refinanced their homes in 2020 or 2021, when mortgage rates were several percentage points lower than today’s rates. And while those pandemic-era mortgages have been a blessing for many homeowners, they’ve also kept others from moving. Rather than give up their current mortgage rate for a higher rate and a mor expensive monthly payment, some would-be sellers have chosen to put their moving plans on hold, further limiting the number of homes for sale and driving up home prices in the process.

The Federal Reserve recently announced they are likely done raising interest rates for the time being and plan to make a least three cuts to their benchmark rate in 2024. Mortgage rates have been dropping in recent months, which should help bring buyers and sellers back to the market and could lead to an uptick in both home sales and housing supply. Affordability will still prove challenging for many homebuyers, however, and economists predict U.S. home sales will remain down compared to 2019-2022. As for home prices, opinions are mixed, with some analysts expecting prices will hold steady or continue rising in areas, while others foresee a modest price drop in some markets.

Our Current Situation Re: The Case-Shiller Housing Index for the Bay Area

New Listings

We are in the February build up to the Spring Market and as usual per the graph we have a low number of active listings currently on the market.

We Are Very Local

The employment picture remains good for San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA and the environs with solid jobs and according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics the unemployment rate still stands at about 4% which by any measure and excellent statistic.

The Immediate Future

On single family homes and residential multi-family properties that are priced right there are some bidding wars happening. The condo market is still sluggish and buyers in this market can still make a good deal for themselves. There are some interesting programs lenders are offering which can help buyers with the high interest rates. A typical program is called a 3-2-1 Buydown which means that the rate is discounted 3% the first year, 2% the second year and 1% the third year whereas on the fourth year the full rate comes into effect and remains fixed for the life of the loan. The risk is that the buyer would anticipate higher income going forward to afford the price in the fourth year and also interest rates might not go down sufficiently enough to warrant a refinance during the buy down period. The seller typically buys the rate down for the buyer to facilitate the sale. It’s worth exploring.

What I Hope For

I am hoping for a renewed and energized market with many more listings on the market giving buyers more of a chance to get in on this Bay Area real estate market. Sellers will see good profits if you have owned for the appropriate amount of time, and I am hoping I can work with a few of you this year whether you are buying or selling.

On A Personal Note

My parents, Ferris and Lenore, are still with us thankfully, dad is 95 years old, and mom is turning 91 next month, they still live on their own here in San Francisco and I am grateful for their presence now and throughout my whole life.

And as always, please don’t hesitate to contact me with any question or need you may have, real estate-wise or anything else.

All the best,

Gary F. Saydah

415-505-1999 | gary.saydah@cbrealty.com | www.garysaydah.com

Cal DRE #01488727 | 1560 Van Ness Avenue 2^nd Flr., San Francisco, CA 94109

Gary F Saydah

DRE# 01488727 Coldwell Banker Realty
‌(415) 505-1999‌

November 2023

The summer was not “The summer of Gary” a line I copped from George Costanza of Seinfeld fame who said that before he broke his leg. In June I broke my left clavicle cycling on Valencia Street on the new center bike lane, so that waylaid my summer plans. I can noticeably see that the days are getting shorter, and the cloud formations are looking to start coalescing into rain, hopefully!

Our Current Situation

The year has been interesting from a sales point of view, the number of listings and sales has been weaker than what we normally see for the same time periods historically. As reported over the summer the number of sales is still down about 40%; prices, after slumping at the beginning of the year, are rebounding and the trend for single family homes is trending up in San Francisco, Marin County and Alameda County. Contra Costa is lagging and dropping still. Persistent high interest rates are either keeping buyers out of the market or discouraging them to enter the market. Investment real estate is experiencing a downturn in prices but the market is actually doing well for investors with deep pockets who are scooping up good deals.

As you will see below, the inflation rate is continuing its slide which is good news for all of us, our dollar is going further than a year ago. The annual core consumer price inflation rate in the United States, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, fell to 4.1% in September 2023, the lowest since September 2021, down from 4.3% in the prior month.

source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Gary Saydah (CAL BRE #01488727) Coldwell Banker Realty

The Immediate Future

Right now, buyers are having the upper-hand and negotiating good deals for properties of all types. The bidding wars have generally faded away with exceptions of course. The number of listings is growing and turning into a normal market where the principles can negotiate and even makes our job as Realtors more interesting because we can use our strategic and negotiating skills more. Interest rates have continued to rise as evidenced by the graph below.

What I Hope For

That as we enter the holiday season that people will have realized their goals for the year and are happy and healthy going into the new year which is just two months away. And if you have real estate questions or goals for this year or next I would love to hear from you and help you in any way.

On A Personal Note

My daughter, Camryn, started her freshman year at the University of Oregon in Eugene starting the next leg of her journey through life. I am so happy for her because she worked super hard to achieve what she has so far and found herself in the right place to pursue higher academics. She’s even interested in football now, something I could never pique her interest in. Go Ducks!

And as always, please don’t hesitate to contact me with any question or need you may have, real estate-wise or anything else.